Happy New Year!

First of all I would like to congratulate myself on acheiving a 98% no stat checking score for December. Really really really happy that I have found a way to stop myself checking stats and I now have no excuses for not continuing with this.

Also happy that the 2% of the time where I did check my stats I instaquit the session. This is hugely +EV as checking stats is my biggest tilt indicator.

I am not going to make a long list of targets for 2010 as things are going well for me at the moment and I just need to keep doing what I am doing.

If all goes to plan I will have played a decent amount of 400nl by the end of next year and my roll will be very healthy indeed :)

Happy new year to everyone and good luck at the tables!

Pokerstars VIP Changes

Looks like stars is going to be more attractive to micro and low stakes grinders in 2010.

Check it out:
http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/2010changes/

On top of the new 'Stellar' bonuses you also get to buy cash bonuses with you FPP's and if/when you make supernova there is a $1,000 milestone bonus.

If you currently play elsewhere it is well worth considering a switch imo.

Practice

Zen and the Art of Poker Rule #23 is Practice. It compares poker to games like tennis and backgammon and states that poker 'is a rhythm and a groove you get into, like anything else.'

When playing regulary I definitely get into the groove and lately have felt good about my game, even when things aren't going my way.

For the last couple of weeks however, I have not been playing enough and it is no coincidence that my game is already showing signs of decay.

Practice makes perfect!

Study Group

This is the easiest way for me to post screenies and I need to post my recent stats for an application to a new study group.

This is my last 3 months:


As regular readers of this blog will know my shot at 400nl went pretty well but the poker gods crushed my soul a little EV style.

I am currently back playing 200nl, with plans to move up to 400nl again in the new year, and whilst I am happier than I have ever been with my game, I know I still have plenty of room for improvement.

The reason I am looking to join a study group is to push myself to do more theory work and develop my understanding of concepts away from the tables.

There is only so much you can learn without others input, and fourms in general suck, so working as part of a group can really help if you get a good bunch of dedicated people together.

Mission Accomplished

Yes I actually managed to get through the whole weekend without looking at my stats once. It was actually easier than I thought it would be during game time and I used a mental trick to help me through:

Set countdown timer to 30 mins. At end of each 30 minute period:

1. No stats checked in last 30 mins - tick
2. Re-evaluate tables and leave those full of regs and ratholers - tick
3. Remind myself that Range, Equity, Maximise thought process is essential at all times - tick
4. Reset timer for next 30 mins and repeat steps above.

The toughest part of the challenge was Saturday night when I had finished for the day. I had no idea where I stood but was pretty sure I was down for the day and badly wanted to know by how much!

By the end of Sundays play I thought I was down even more and had guesstimated a loss of around 3.5 buyins over the two days. Turns out I had booked a 3 buyin win which shows that losing hands stay in the mind that little bit longer!

Anyway, regardless of the actual results the challenge was a huge success. I definitely played some of my best poker at times, got totally into the zone and was way more focused on things that can actually have a positive effect on results.

For December I am going to set myself the targert of only checking my stats when I have finished playing for the day.

Challenge Update

Have played 3 two hour sessions today and have no idea whether I am up or down for the day as I cannot look at my stats until tomorrow evening!

Is driving me nuts but am going to make it :)

End of month 2 day challenge

Monday is my day off so this weekend will be the last of my play for November. Has been a pretty crazy month but am hoping to be able to show some sort of profit despite riding the variance train at full speed.

This weekend I will be playing 5 two hour sessions over the two days and am going to challenge myslef to not look at my stats at all until I am done for the month. That means no looking at results even between sessions!

This will be extremely tough for me and I will blog about the experience next week.

Wish me luck :)

Come on you Spurs!!!!!!

Folding KK preflop

Have dropped back to 200nl today in order to rebuild confidence back in the comfort zone.

4 hours played so far and up 6buyins :)

Moving up for a while certainly makes your current game seem like a walk in the park when you go back down. I think this is because I find it easier to trust my reads when bankroll issues aren't playing on my mind.

A couple of examples:



Open raiser is a fish, button is a reg. Great spot to 4bet but probably would have felt less comfortable with it at 400nl even though it is the same great spot!



Yep I folded KK preflop. Cut off is decent reg and min cold 4bet from relatively unkonwn Big Blind had me saying to myself "Can I fold KK preflop?".

Well, rightly or wrongly, now I can!

What now?

Am back at the tables as of yesterday, after a few days off, and have just finished a -4buyin session at 400nl.

Worryingly, this is the first time I felt like I was getting owned at 400nl and consequently leveled myslef into making some spewy preflop decisions and bad bluffs.

To be honest the fact that I am shot taking is playing on my mind a bit too and I am not used to playing with a bankroll of just 5buyins. My bankroll nittyness is working against me in this regard as I have no (recent) experience of shot taking and am now out of my comfort zone in terms of bankroll.

My confidence is pretty low at the moment and I am considering a drop back to 200nl whilst I sort my head out. I am breakeven for the month so technically I still have a 5 buyin shot but I don't see the point of continuing when I am not at my best.

Am done for the day so will give it some thought and decide overnight.

First $2k day - Ship it :)

2/4 shot continues..........

Variance

Hmmm. Where's that heater?

A game...check....Doomswitch......check.......

Now running almost 11 buyins below EV in less than 9,000 hands.

I don't remember running this bad ever and the fact that I am still up and playing well (ie not tilting) surely shows my A game is in good shape right now.

Here's to hoping I run better before variance kills my 1st 5 buyin shot at 2/4.

Oh come on.....

That's what I found myself saying out loud after yet another 85/15 suckout just now.

This is my month at 2/4 so far and whilst numbers are green, things could be so much better if the poker gods were playing close to fair.



I feel like I am playing well and just need to keep focusing on what I can control.

October Results

On top of this I picked upt $2,800 in stars bonuses so overall a very nice month

My roll also hit $40k for the first time and I am going to have my first planned shot at 400nl in November.

A Game - 42%, B Game - 26%, C Game - 10%, D Game - 1%, E Game - 18%

I am still feeling good about my game and s0 far in August I am up $100 running at $1600 below EV in 3 sessions. We can't control the beats :)

400NL

Have started to incorporate 400nl into my games selection and have just hit 5,000 hands:



Small sample size obviously but I haven't noticed too much difference from 200nl and in fact have run into some familar players from my regular games. Not all of them are good players :)

In fact this has been the most comfortable I have ever felt when moving up. I am fairly happy with my 'A' game right now and have not had any problems with the increased monetary value of the chips in front of me.

Playing your natural game, not playing scared and not levelling yourself into any fancy play syndrome are crucial when moving up.

Funny Hand

4Betting vs tight range

So our task is to examine the profitability of 4betting and calling off for 100BB's vs a 5-7% 3betting range. Specifically the profitability of TT but using pokerazor we can actually examine the profitability of the line for our entire opening range.

So firstly we set the scene:



For those of you not familiar with pokerazor this is a very simple tree where hero opens to $6 (3bb's), SB 3bets to $22 (11bb's) and hero raises to $48 (24bb's) with his entire range and calls a shove with TT+, AK, AQs.

The percentages shown are the frequencies of each action. For example hero is opening with 52.04% of hands (we are stealing the nits blinds) and folding 47.96% preflop.

If the SB is raising 5-7% of the time his range is pretty strong. This is the range I have assigned:



The range is TT+, AQ+, AJs, KQo being raised 100% of time and then some suited connectors and suited aces being raised occasionally (weighted at 10%). As you can see on the first pic above this equates to SB 3betting of 6.128% of the time. For the purpose of this exercise we are ignoring the times he calls preflop and he is therefore 3betting with this range or folding.

Now I am going to show the pokerazor EV calcs for 4betting our entire range and also the EV of calling if SB shoves. I am going to do this vs two 5 betting ranges.

Results vs tight 5Bet range of JJ+, AK



These results show that even 4betting JJ is a -EV play vs this opponent and we should not be looking to get in in here without QQ+, AK.

Here are the EV calcs of calling the 5bet:



Calling the 5bet with JJ, TT or AQs is still a -EV so we are not 'priced in' to call vs a JJ+, AK 5bet shoving range.

Results vs wider 5bet range of TT+, AK, Axs



So now we add TT and suited aces to his 5bet range (nb. not all suited aces are in his 3bet range) and 4betting JJ now becomes profitable.



And we are priced in to call with TT+, AK, AQs IF we are sure he is sometimes 5bet shoving as a bluff but the 4bet itself is still a -EV play.

The thing to take away from this is just how important it is to know your opponent, and more importantly to know their ranges.

4bet calling TT

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 4 Players

Generated by weaktight.com.

CO	$231.10
Hero (BTN)	$200
SB	$224.25
BB	$227.85

• Pre-Flop ($3, 4 players)Hero is BTN
• 

1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BB raises to $22, Hero raises to $56, BB folds

• Final Pot: $79

• Hero wins $79 (net +$23)
• BB lost $22

Pretty standard stuff right?

Well against this guy it was for sure, as his 3bet range was pretty wide, but what if his 3betting range vs btn open was between 5-7%?

This exact subject has been brought up on Misanthropic's blog and I am going to run this through pokerazor (www.pokerazor.com) when I have a bit more time, probably tomorrow, as I am almost certain that 4betting TT in this situation is a losing play against a tighter range. Before today I was 100% certain!

I obvioulsy need to find out if I am wrong and adjust my thought process accordingly.

Noro and 2/4

Have been away from the tables for a few days as the whole family has been hit by the Norovirus. Also known as the Vomit Virus which really doesn't get close to giving you an idea of how bad it makes you feel! Luckily it only last a few days and we are all on the mend.....

In the few session I have managed to play I have mixed in a little 2/4.
So far I crush at over 25BB's/100.
Smaple size 142 hands.
Sustainable ldo ;)

Here's a hand I am not sure about which I also posted on DC forums....



Villain is 34/26 and seems aggro post flop but no read on his river cbet frequencies.

Any thoughts on flop call and/or turn decision?

What can you do?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	$415.75
UTG+1	$209.60
CO	$211.25
BTN	$466.85
SB	$204.35
Hero (BB)	$685.20

• Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is BB
• 

3 folds, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1, Hero raises to $14, BTN raises to $66, SB folds, Hero goes all-in $685.20, BTN goes all-in $400.85

• Flop ($1,154.05, 2 players, 2 all-in)
• 

• Turn ($1,154.05, 2 players, 2 all-in)
• 

• River ($1,154.05, 2 players, 2 all-in)
• 

• Final Pot: $1,154.05

• BTN shows a straight, Ten to Ace
• 

• Hero shows three of a kind, Aces
• 

• BTN wins $932.70 ( won +$465.85 )
• Hero wins $218.35 ( lost -$466.85 )
• SB lost -$2

Same mistake again? Maybe......

Very similar hand/line from yesterday but this time villain is 42/16 and spewy post flop.

More interestingly the hand from yesterday was still fresh in my mind and yet my gut was still telling me not to fold this. Usually it's the other way round with alarm bells ringing loud and just depends whether I am playing well enough to find the fold button.

Can't really explain why I was sure I was good here though so have to put this one down to one of two things, either Winners Tilt (I was having a good session, could have ruined it!) or Unconcious Competence as per Jared vids (ie I was in the zone).

Eliminating Mistakes

I have had a decent start to October and feel good about my game, but this hand from today annoys me.....



My annoyance is because:

1. Villain is tight pre, passive post flop. I was actually thinking about folding the flop but decided to call and see what develops. This is at best a marginal call.(Note the lack of plan in my thought process.....)

2. Having made the marginal call I check (which I think is OK) but my failure to make a plan now has me in trouble and time bank is ticking.

3. I revert to the bad old if in doubt check/ship the turn line!

This hand is the difference between an 'A' rating for the session and a 'C' rating and gives me my first 'C' of the month :(

Euro games testing on stars

Not sure what to make of this and will reserve judgement for now. HEM doesn't seem to be able to differentiate between currencies which is an obvious problem when it comes to working out your winrate!

Free Videos at Deucescracked

Deucescracked.com are offering free flash viewer videos for one weekend only.

Some great stuff on there so go get stuck in.....

Eliminating 'C' Game

Honestly I am starting to realise how often I have played my C game this year and I feel ashamed (this is a good thing now it has been recognised and acknowledged as a major flaw in my play). No wonder I have had such disappointing results.

The Jared Tendler vids on CR are awesome and I am very happy with my latest way of scoring sessions. Since my last posts my sessions scores have been A,B+,A+,A,A,A,B.

Not a bit of C game in sight and I feel like a new player.

My target for the last 3 months is to eliminate C game from my play completely which will then give me a true reflection of my A game over a decent sample.

If my target is met and results suck for the 3 month period then obvioulsy it is my A and B games that are the problem. They could suck too but until C game is gone there is no way of knowing!

'A game'

How often do you play your A game?

How often do you make the best decision you can for each street of every hand for an entire session?

The answer to the above questions should be the same and I have been thinking about this a lot of the past week or so. I don't play my A game anywhere near as much as I need to and this is reflected in my results.

I watched a Jared Tendler video on cardrunners and this has inspired me to list certain variables/distractions and I am usuing this post to try and categorise what I have listed so far. (Note that looking at session results during play is a previously confirmed tilt indicator for me personally.)

E Game Indicators
Look at session results and continue session

D Game Indicators
Look at session results and stop session
Playing more than 4 tables

C Game Indicators
High emotive response to losing pots
Taking things personally and looking for revenge
Making snap decisions on any street
Surfing Internet
Checking E-mail
Folding Frustration
Boredom

B Game Indicators
Autopliting and/or over reliance on HUD

A Game Indicators
Embracing quiet periods
Range Awareness and REM
Image/Gameflow Awareness
Table Selection
Marking hands for review

A+ Game Indicators
Session/hand reviews
Concept studies
Study of regular opponents

This is my first go at this and am hoping to evolve list and categories over time.

Any comments/suggestions welcome :)

Security & Customer Satisfaction

A while ago I purchased the RSA security token from the Pokerstars VIP store, which is a solid decision given what I read on Misanthropic's blog today, and at the weekend I received an e-mail from stars informing me they had reduced the price of the token significantly.

We can only do so much in terms of protecting our money online and then have to put our trust in our chosen sites security to protect our money on our behalf. I trust stars to do this and have confidence they would be there to step in and help should anything bad happen. Fwiw I don't have that confidence in any other site.

Not only are stars making the security token cheaper, I was pleasantly surprised to hear that they were also going to refund to my account the difference between the price I had paid and the new lower amount. How good is this for customer relations?

Pokerstars have yet again proven to me they are a gazillion miles in front of any other poker site available.

August Results

August is done:


I ran pretty bad overall in both EV and hidden EV situations so am pretty pleased with how things have gone this month.

In particular I am happy that I have found a way of scoring my progress and August scores are:

Mark Hands Durings sessions - 100%
No Looking at Results - 43%
4 Tables Max - 73%
Review Marked Hands - 78%
Session Summary - 73%

I have been a bit harsh on myself in these results. For example a session were I play for 2 hours and 6 table for only ten minutes counts as a failure for the session. Likewise looking at stats 15mins before the end of a session also fails.

Marking hands is now natural to me, which is great progress, and I am going to combine marking hands and reviewing hands into 1 category for September.

September Targets:
Improve looking at results percentage
Work on 3,4 & 5 betting ranges
Maintain Good Poker Mindset

Gl to everyone in September.

Targets Update

Am up a bit but running very bad this month.

Am pleased with how I am coping with the variance though and here is an update on my targets for August:

Mark Hands Durings sessions - 21/21 100%
No Looking at Results - 8/21 38%
4 Tables Max - 15/21 71%
Review Marked Hands - 15/21 71%
Session Summary - 17/21 81%

Room for improvement and but am starting to build some very useful notes during my marked hand reviews.

Not looking at stats is toughest one but I would guess that 38% would be my personal best if results had been recorded prior to this month.

Ratholers

Used to hate them, starting to love them :)

Hidden Variance

A break even session:



Which included this hand:



Villain is a nit who is never folding an ace and never putting any more money in the pot without an ace flush draw so I figured I may as well stack his AK's and not give free card's to his pairs.

Turn is indication of how I am doing variance wise at the moment and for all you EV lovers out there this hand proves beyond any reasonable doubt that EV stats in HEM are not worthy of being there. Why? Answers on a postcard please at the usual address.

Streakometers

Have set myself some targets for August. In the 4 sessions played so far I have managed to stick to them:

No Looking at stats during session 4/4
Keep session log and mark hands for review 4/4
Session review 4/4
4 Tables maximum for whole session 3/4 (15minutes of 6tables - see previous post).

Am on a roll and my play is reaping the rewards :)

Erm.......

This is truly annoying and a very good example of why I need to play 4 tables maxiumum.



I didn't even realise I had flopped the nuts until showdown :((((((

In Game Help

I have been working on an in game reference folder for the past few days and think it is going to be very useful.

So far it contains some basic range charts together with some brief notes on cbetting and board textures.

I also plan to put in some notes on poker mindset, line variations, hand review sheets, and any other important stuff that is currently buried in the ever increasing pile of notes on my desk.

Keeping the faith.....

Have just come off my sixth consecutive losing session but am pretty happy with the way I am playing.

No big changes and keep the faith!

Cue boomswitch :)

Betting Reciprocality*

Player 3 is same opponent in both hands:





*Buy Elements of Poker and then you will get it

Straightforward

These screenshots are unfortunately not mine but are evidenence that a straightforward style can be hugely profitable at 200NL.

Have a guess at his VPIP/PFR/AFQ numbers......

4TABLESMAXOMETER

Inspired by pocketfish007's 'NOLOOKSTREAKOMETER' (inspired itself by this very blog) I am happy to introduce the '4TABLESMAXOMETER'.

The rules are pretty simple. For every session I complete playing a maximum of 4 tables at all times the score increases by 1.

Score currently stands at zero and may never make it to one!

Sigh

Half Year Report

Six months into my first year as a semi-pro and things could have gone better for sure. I guess I could list a long list of excuses as to why things started so badly, but I am not going to, and instead will stick to taking full responsibility for my results.

If you are considering poker as a career, my advice is to make sure you pick the right time in your life to do it and make sure that your bankroll and confidence can cope with a huge downswing during the first 6 months!

The biggest mistakes I have made this year are:

1. Playing 6+ tables too often.
I can easily find 6 good tables to play, however the problem is I find 6 tables quite hectic and struggle to play my A game. Playing 6+ turns me into a hudbot which I really hate and my thought processes are so much clearer when playing 4 maxiumum.

2. Suffering from FPS
I think the penny has finally dropped that I need to stop experimenting so much with fancy plays and just focus on making money instead. At the tables I am actually down small for the year, but over the last 50k hands or so I have been playing good solid poker and am fairly happy with my game at the moment.

3. Being lazy
I honestly think I took my game more seriously when I had real full time job and I need to devote more time to hand reviews, watching videos etc. If you stand still in poker terms your game goes backwards. Something like that anyway!

So there's my half year progress report. Room for improvement :)

Fun Hands & Vacation

I am off on vacation soon so I thought I would post a few fun hands from a session last night to keep you entertained while I am away. Am back on 23rd June and hopefully the games will still be running when I get back!

Job Done

May is over.........



I am made a concious decision at the start of the month to focus on playing good solid poker and am obviously happy with the results.

Am going to play the Sunday Warm Up and Turbo Takedown donkaments this afternoon.
Bring on the Porsche :)

The final furlong

So we are in the final stretch for May I have been grinding hard.

Am on course for 30k+ hands which is just about my maximum possible when 4 tabling and here are the results so far:

Unless I fall at the final fence (which has been known) then it looks like being a decent winning month.

I love poker so much more when I am winning :)

Turbo Takedown

Wow, it's almost 2 weeks since I last posted and I have no idea where that time has gone!

May has gone well for me so far and with a week to go I have already got more than enough hands in to secure Supernova status from next month. Once again big props to the stars UK promotion.

For anyone who has FPP's on stars check out the Turbo Takedown on Sun 31 May.
1 in 3 get paid, deep starting stacks and the entry this month is just 2,000 FPP's for a $1m guaranteed pot. Well worth a dabble into donkament territory.

TAG vs LAG

I have been nitting it up a bit lately and recently watched a leggo vid by cntgetmedown which gave a good explanation of the pros and cons of each style:

TAG Advantages

1. Easier to play well
2. Lower Variance
3. Less likely to tilt

TAG Disadvantages

1. Giving up some EV
2. Not getting action
3. Hard to build table image

LAG Advantages

1. Take advantage of weaker players
2. Easier to creat table image
3. Will get more action

LAG Disadvantages

1. More likely to tilt
2. Harder to play well
3. Increased variance

The crucial thing here is if you play LAG at low stakes, but sometimes go on tilt, you are much better of just playing TAG and letting the money come to you.

<3 for stars

Have just lost my supernova status on stars due to a misusnderstanding of FPP's needed in April.

Was pretty annoyed about this on Friday but the same day I got an e-mail detailing a big promotion for UK players which basically means I will be supernova again at the end of this month.

Stars is by far and away the best site imo and I am done with looking for a better site now. I may be losing a little in rakeback but I really don't care as it is more than made up by software, customer support, easy deposits/withdrawels and most importantlty LOTS OF FISH :)

Back to the Grind

So far my semi-pro results have been pretty bad and I am starting to realise that a lot of problems could have been avoided by accepting that drastic changes are not required every single time things aren’t going well.

I am yet again reading ‘The Poker Mindset’ and seem to have broken just about every rule relating to downswings over the past few months!

Once again it is time to go back to basics and grind. No more FPS :)

I am also going to replace monthly targets with a list of things I must not forget.

No more play this month!!

Am very busy which coaching and non poker stuff at the moment so have decided it is best not to try and squeeze sessions in. I play bad when in these situations!

So I am going to wrap April up early. Am down 10 buyins over 9k hands but meh - I have played well and am confident things will turn around soon enough.

If I have any spare time I am going to do some analysis on all my hands this year and will be doing so with an open mind!!

Prospective Students - Take Note

In 2 sessions you have the potential to go from this:


To this:


Nice work Jake!

2 Tabling

Am not playing at the moment as we have family visiting and I am enjoying the break.

When I return I have decided to 2 table for a while and focus only on playing my A game. Hopefully the poker gods will then take pity on me :)

Good riddance.......

.........to the first quarter of 2009.

This is my March:

Maybe I should play more $2NL :)

March Targets
Learn Stox EV
Haven't used stox that much so far but it is a very useful tool for analysing hands. Need to watch instruction videos again in order to develop my understanding of all the functions.

Written Hand Reviews
I have started a file of hands and notes for future reference.

Mistakes Log
See above. My file will contain plenty of mistakes!

Common Line Errors
Again See above.

Post Session Scoring Rules
I have been working hard on this and am close to finishing a 'Playometer' that will give me a score for each session as a percentage. In my tests so far I have been scoring 57% on average so plenty of room for improvement.

HUD Lines Popup
I have designed my own popup of useful stats and will update as I go along.

Read Forums/Watch Mid Stakes Vids
Have watched a few vids and am posting on private forums as much as I can, although probably not as much as I should.

The Battle Within

"POKER RULE #42: Your biggest opponent, and worst enemy, is always yourself."
- Larry W. Phillips - Zen and the Art of Poker

Zen and the Art of Poker

As you may have guessed my poker mindset has sucked a bit lately. For one reason or another short term varaince has been affecting my play but I have now identified some problem areas of the mental kind and am working on fixing them.

I have also started reading Zen and the Art of Poker and am only 12 pages in so far but it already looks like it will be worth the read.

I like this quote:

"How is patience translated in poker terms? For the most part, the answer can be summed up in a single word: folding."

This is very true and people will probably say that for the most part they are patient because they play well pre flop and fold a lot, however my problem lately has been not showing enough patience in post flop situations.

Self Coaching

Yesterday I got some nice feedback from a new student:

"I have been playing winning poker for nearly 40 years, observing good players, and reading books and articles by the dozens. I can honestly say that I learned more in a 2 ½ hour coaching session with Steve, than I did from all that observation and study. With his review of my hand histories, Steve was able to immediately point out the weaknesses in my game, and instruct me on how to improve them. His coaching style is pleasant and he is clearly very knowledgeable of the subject matter."

I clearly talk a good game and am able to improve my students thought process pretty quickly yet I do not practice what I preach as often as I should.

A lot of times lately I have been reviewing my hands and thinking my students would be getting a hard time from me if it were their play we were looking at rather than mine.

My wife has now started to notice it too! 'Why did you do that when I hear you telling your students the opposite every day?' is fast becomming a FAQ in our house and in view of this I have decided to self coach for a while and put myself through my own coaching programme.

Hopefully I will be able to start listening to my own advice :)

Showdown Muppett

Run Better imo :(

Trust Yourself

I haven't had a great year so far and have been running bad but to be honest I think part of it has been trying to play a style I am not comfortable with.

Over the weekend I decided to play slightly tighter, which is more natural to me personally, and the results really speak for themselves.



This immediate change in fortunes may be coincidence but I logged some wins and played with much more confidence. It's a nice feeling :)

I think it's time to beleive in my game and just play profitable poker.

Stox EV

At the tables I have been running bad and probably playing bad a bit too.

Away from the tables I have joined a study group and have been playing around with stoxev (www.stoxev.com) which looks pretty awesome.

Still learning how to use most of the functions but looks perfect for analysing hands and also for coming up with theoretical situations and moves.

February Review

Well I made a small profit at the tables in February so an improvement of sorts! Will post pics when I can.

Here is reveiw of February Targets.

Premier League

Weekly Review
Weekly reviews are coming along nicely and I have indentified some leaks. I need to work harder to use what I learn in my reviews when making decisions at the tables.

Stick to Play Schedule
Play schedule is evolving but I managed to hit my target for hours played and/or coached.

Session Checklist
Have been testing this and almost ready to use. It will enbale me to score my sessions with consistency but without focusing on results at all.

Line Analysis
I seem to think about a line for a few days, have some success with it, then forget what situations suit the line best and spew accordingly!

Use Time Bank
I am getting better at this but plenty of room for improvement. Please no more snap calls.


Championship

Fold AK Pre-Flop sometimes!
I folded AK pre flop once :)

Improve Bet Sizing
Am pretty happy with my bet sizing in general at the moment. Many time during sweats sessions with my coach he would tell me how much to bet, yet because of the lag between screen sharing software and skype I had already made the bet within a dollar or two.

Study Ranges
This is ongoing and improving but again need to convert into improvements during game time.

Work on Reasons for Calling
Part of weekly reviews.

Sound Advice

"First thing I would say is variance is more of a bitch than people realise. CTS was probably the most succesful midstakes player ever and he posted about having TWO 100k hand break even stretches at these limits on the way up. (the games were infinitely easier then too-. So with that in mind I wouldn't necessarily panic about a 50k break even stretch." - My coach.

Playing to learn

I dropped 6 buyins on first day back from my break which is super standard after any time off!

I am pretty much break even at the tables so far this year despite playing well (I think) and this is getting me a little frustrated, however I read something in Secrets of Short Handed No Limit Holdem by Danny Ashman which is really helping my mindset.

Basically I am working on ‘playing to learn’ as opposed to ‘playing to win’.

The great thing about playing to learn is that if you actually manage to learn from your mistakes you will ultimately win more. That’s the theory anyway!

Going Away

I am going to be away visiting family next week.

I should be able to check my e-mails occassionally but will be on the road most of the time and will be taking a break from playing.

Am obviously taking a poker book to study when I can :)

Grinding

For the past week I have been 8 tabling and playing a relatively straightforward TAG style.

Playing too many tables is usually a bad thing but I felt I was over thinking my plays and all my fancy plays were actually costly mistakes. By playing more tables I have reduced the amount of time I have to think and this has forced me to play a straightforward style and just grind.

Results have been steady and unspectacular so far but I did drop 10 buyins over 2 sessions which hurt the winrate a little*.

*By a little I mean a lot!

I think playing more tables is a good way to reduce variance when things aren't going so well but you need to be very confident that your understanding of ABC poker is good. If you can't consistently make good plans and decisions, and make them quickly, then 8 tabling is not for you.

Oh and if any of my students are reading do not start 8 tabling!!!

Neutral EV

Here are my first months results as a semi-pro:



They would have been a whole lot worse if I hadn't made a nice $1,500 profit on the final day!

According to my EV number I ran $4 over expectation for the month. I run goot!

Now let's look at a hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($200.00)
UTG+1		($200.00)
CO		($288.05)
BTN		($327.85)
Hero (SB)		($209.25)
BB		($256.40)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, BTN raises to $4, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, BTN calls $10

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
Hero bets $22, BTN calls $22

Turn: ($74, 2 players)
Hero bets $56, BTN calls $56

River: ($186, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $117.25, BTN calls $117.25

Final Pot: $420.50
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

BTN wins $417.50 ( won +$208.25 )
Hero lost -$209.25

Villain was a fish and I was very happy with my play and especially my bet sizing on the turn in order to get him pot stuck on the river. (Obv not so much of a problem for him given he had quads but meh to results orientated thinking).

Pokerstove tells me that I have 77.660% equity in this hand when I shove the river:

Board: 2h 4c 2d 6d Tc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.660% 76.60% 01.06% 36 0.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 22.340% 21.28% 01.06% 10 0.50 { 66+, 44, 22 }

However EV treats this as neutral, due to the fact that the money went in on river, when in actual fact I got my money in good vs opponents range and ran pretty bad in this hand.

There are many other examples this month and the moral of the post is that EV numbers just mislead people and should be ignored.

G-Bucks works much better:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker/columns/story?columnist=bluff_magazine&id=2817110