So our task is to examine the profitability of 4betting and calling off for 100BB's vs a 5-7% 3betting range. Specifically the profitability of TT but using pokerazor we can actually examine the profitability of the line for our entire opening range.
So firstly we set the scene:
For those of you not familiar with pokerazor this is a very simple tree where hero opens to $6 (3bb's), SB 3bets to $22 (11bb's) and hero raises to $48 (24bb's) with his entire range and calls a shove with TT+, AK, AQs.
The percentages shown are the frequencies of each action. For example hero is opening with 52.04% of hands (we are stealing the nits blinds) and folding 47.96% preflop.
If the SB is raising 5-7% of the time his range is pretty strong. This is the range I have assigned:
The range is TT+, AQ+, AJs, KQo being raised 100% of time and then some suited connectors and suited aces being raised occasionally (weighted at 10%). As you can see on the first pic above this equates to SB 3betting of 6.128% of the time. For the purpose of this exercise we are ignoring the times he calls preflop and he is therefore 3betting with this range or folding.
Now I am going to show the pokerazor EV calcs for 4betting our entire range and also the EV of calling if SB shoves. I am going to do this vs two 5 betting ranges.
Results vs tight 5Bet range of JJ+, AK
These results show that even 4betting JJ is a -EV play vs this opponent and we should not be looking to get in in here without QQ+, AK.
Here are the EV calcs of calling the 5bet:
Calling the 5bet with JJ, TT or AQs is still a -EV so we are not 'priced in' to call vs a JJ+, AK 5bet shoving range.
Results vs wider 5bet range of TT+, AK, Axs
So now we add TT and suited aces to his 5bet range (nb. not all suited aces are in his 3bet range) and 4betting JJ now becomes profitable.
And we are priced in to call with TT+, AK, AQs IF we are sure he is sometimes 5bet shoving as a bluff but the 4bet itself is still a -EV play.
The thing to take away from this is just how important it is to know your opponent, and more importantly to know their ranges.
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