Sound Advice

"First thing I would say is variance is more of a bitch than people realise. CTS was probably the most succesful midstakes player ever and he posted about having TWO 100k hand break even stretches at these limits on the way up. (the games were infinitely easier then too-. So with that in mind I wouldn't necessarily panic about a 50k break even stretch." - My coach.

Playing to learn

I dropped 6 buyins on first day back from my break which is super standard after any time off!

I am pretty much break even at the tables so far this year despite playing well (I think) and this is getting me a little frustrated, however I read something in Secrets of Short Handed No Limit Holdem by Danny Ashman which is really helping my mindset.

Basically I am working on ‘playing to learn’ as opposed to ‘playing to win’.

The great thing about playing to learn is that if you actually manage to learn from your mistakes you will ultimately win more. That’s the theory anyway!

Going Away

I am going to be away visiting family next week.

I should be able to check my e-mails occassionally but will be on the road most of the time and will be taking a break from playing.

Am obviously taking a poker book to study when I can :)

Grinding

For the past week I have been 8 tabling and playing a relatively straightforward TAG style.

Playing too many tables is usually a bad thing but I felt I was over thinking my plays and all my fancy plays were actually costly mistakes. By playing more tables I have reduced the amount of time I have to think and this has forced me to play a straightforward style and just grind.

Results have been steady and unspectacular so far but I did drop 10 buyins over 2 sessions which hurt the winrate a little*.

*By a little I mean a lot!

I think playing more tables is a good way to reduce variance when things aren't going so well but you need to be very confident that your understanding of ABC poker is good. If you can't consistently make good plans and decisions, and make them quickly, then 8 tabling is not for you.

Oh and if any of my students are reading do not start 8 tabling!!!

Neutral EV

Here are my first months results as a semi-pro:



They would have been a whole lot worse if I hadn't made a nice $1,500 profit on the final day!

According to my EV number I ran $4 over expectation for the month. I run goot!

Now let's look at a hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($200.00)
UTG+1		($200.00)
CO		($288.05)
BTN		($327.85)
Hero (SB)		($209.25)
BB		($256.40)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, BTN raises to $4, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, BTN calls $10

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
Hero bets $22, BTN calls $22

Turn: ($74, 2 players)
Hero bets $56, BTN calls $56

River: ($186, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $117.25, BTN calls $117.25

Final Pot: $420.50
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

BTN wins $417.50 ( won +$208.25 )
Hero lost -$209.25

Villain was a fish and I was very happy with my play and especially my bet sizing on the turn in order to get him pot stuck on the river. (Obv not so much of a problem for him given he had quads but meh to results orientated thinking).

Pokerstove tells me that I have 77.660% equity in this hand when I shove the river:

Board: 2h 4c 2d 6d Tc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.660% 76.60% 01.06% 36 0.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 22.340% 21.28% 01.06% 10 0.50 { 66+, 44, 22 }

However EV treats this as neutral, due to the fact that the money went in on river, when in actual fact I got my money in good vs opponents range and ran pretty bad in this hand.

There are many other examples this month and the moral of the post is that EV numbers just mislead people and should be ignored.

G-Bucks works much better:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker/columns/story?columnist=bluff_magazine&id=2817110