Rusty but ready to go

Tomorrow the family fly home and I will be back at the tables.

I squeezed in a *big losing* session a few days ago and I didn't feel too comfortable in the games to be honest. A break always seems to have a negative impact on my game but hopefully I will be able to get back to winning ways quickly.

I have a few minor amendments to make pre-flop and have decided to strip down my HUD to a very basic VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands. There were so many numbers and colours on my screen before that I was forgetting some important fundamentals.

I am also in the process of designing bespoke hover pop ups to give me the numbers when looking to outplay people (so watch out stars regs lol).

Have a good one and let the boomswitch be with you - and me too obv!

Oh and........
Spurs have lost their first 2 games and play chelsea away on sunday. Looking likely to be 0 points from first 3 games. Pre-season optimism crushed and no more footy comments from
me :(

Monitors

I have been doing some research and have decided a 30" monitor is the only way forward for an aspiring poker pro.

I think I will go for this:

http://www.trustedreviews.com/displays/review/2007/05/23/Samsung-SyncMaster-305T-30in-Monitor/p1

Now I need to find a company that will deliver to the isle of man!

Green is good

This is my month so far:



13 successive winning sessions followed by a brutal 5 buyin defeat!

If you look at the EV number it looks like I am running well but I really don't think I am.

The problem with EV stats is that when you get to the river it is alwalys neutral EV. So when you flopped set on a rainbow board is beaten by some crappy gutshot/backdoor flush combo then this doesn't go towards the EV numbers, unless of course you are all in before the river.

My family is visiting for the next 2 weeks, so probably won't be playing much at all, but the month should be a profitable one ;)

Getting away from poker just for once, the football season starts today (you can call it soccer but whatever) which is exciting.

My team have made some good signings and have been on fire pre-season, really need to get off to a good start today, COME ON YOU SPURS!!!

Waiting game

Following on from my Supernova calculations you may have guessed that going pro is being given some serious consideration!

A couple of years ago Helen and I made a lifestyle > career decision and moved from London to the Isle of Man.

I gave up a very well paid job in London but Helen is self employed and works from home which made the transition nice and smooth.

I do have a job over here now, but it is brain numbingly dull, with zero prospects and I would not be sacrificing anything career wise to give poker a shot.

I have calculated that $4,000 per month would effectively be ‘break even’ compared to my salary once tax, travel etc has been taken into consideration and poker income is tax free for us which makes a real difference.

I have a bankroll of $40,000 ready and waiting in a separate poker account, plenty more in savings and we could easily survive for 18 months or so with no money at all coming in. Everything points to a resignation right?

Well in normal circumstances it would but Helen is pregnant with our first baby, due 30th September and she is currently on maternity leave (not getting paid) and if I resigned now we would have zero guaranteed income for when baby first enters the world. Whilst we are both 100% convinced going pro is the way forward, waiting just a few more months is probably the most sensible thing.

Whether being sensible is +EV or –EV is another discussion entirely.......

Supernova Heights

Playing 200NL consistently for the past few months has put me on course for stars Supernova level before the end of the year.

This will be pretty cool and the main benefits for me will be:

250% FPP multiplier
Higher bonuses available
Entry to $50k MTT every Saturday

I have started to think about what Supernova means in real money terms if I decide to play full time in 2009.

Estimate

12,000 hands per week * 50 weeks = 600,000 hands per year

600,000 hands * 0.525 VPP per hand = 315,000 VPP’s per year

315,000 VPP’s * 3.5 Supernova Multiplier = 1,102,500 FPP’s per year

Bonuses available at $4,000 per 250,000 FPP’s
1,102,500 / 250,000 * $4,000 = $17,640 per year

Milestone Bonuses
200,000 VPP’s = $2,000
300,000 VPP’s = $3,000

$17,640 + $2,000 + $3,000 = $22,640 per year

So average of $1,886 per month in bonuses based on twelve thousand hands per week at 200NL.

I am pretty decent in MTT’s as well so would expect some cashes if I play the $50k tourney every week.

Overall I think $24,000 per year (or $2,000 per month) is easily doable just by 4 tabling 200NL. This is actually pretty conservative as I think I would play more hands and also it is unlikely all hands will be at 200NL.

Now I just need to budget my BB/100 over 600,000 hands :)

August Targets

Premier League
1. Conduct hand reviews and post problematical hands on forums.
2. Recognise and avoid passive tilt.
3. No looking at stats during session. This includes last lap.
4. No AIM or Internet during play.
5. Give study full 100% concentration. It is not an inconvenience!

Championship
1. Study standard lines for playing OOP.
2. Work on play from blinds especially in unraised pots.
3. Mark hands during session and save for future reference and coaching purposes.
4. Improve understanding bet sizing on all streets (relevant to hand planning).

Lower League
1. Website
2. No 400NL before $40k roll.
3. Learn Omaha Cash
4. Learn HU Cash

July Review

Premier League

1. Conduct hand reviews and post problematical hands on forums.
I am doing pretty well with this and am using my coach and the forums to develop my understanding in key areas.

2. Recognise and avoid passive tilt.
Still searching for the sweet spot between over aggression and passive spew. Grey area is reducing bit by bit.

3. No looking at stats during session. This includes last lap

I’m terrible at this but am doing a little better over the past week or so.

4. No AIM or Internet during play.
Success!

5. Give study full 100% concentration. It is not an inconvenience!

I am really getting into watching videos again and also doing a lot of work on hand reviews, pokerstoving ranges etc.

Championship

1. Use button, or more specifically position, to put opponents under pressure.
I am doing pretty well with this but need to think more about when to fire turn and river bullets.

2. Work with coach on monthly reviews.
Holdem Manager is great for monthly reviews and have started a spreadsheet to compare some crucial stats on a monthly basis.

3. Develop workflows for balanced strategy including c-betting.
I have made some small changes for my pre-flop game and will be monitoring progress in August.

4. Plan hands based on opponents. Start plan pre-flop and adjust pre-flop play if necessary.
See above. Pre-flop style has changed a little and planning hands is crucial.

5. Be prepared to check fold flop when out of position, even if I have the lead.
OOP = Out of Power. I suck out of position and need to work on this area of my game.

6. Resist the urge to play some 400NL. I still want to crush 200NL first.
I am considering going pro in 2009 and have therefore turned into a bankroll nit, however, when my roll hits $40k I will mix in the occasional 400NL session to test the water.

Lower League

1. Website

2. Revise coaching rates – Have submitted application to be a CR Coach up to 100NL

3. Learn Omaha Cash.

4. Learn HU Cash – Am up $170 at 50NL HU for July over very small sample size. I find HU a little boring to be honest but it may be because I am playing so low.