Neutral EV

Here are my first months results as a semi-pro:



They would have been a whole lot worse if I hadn't made a nice $1,500 profit on the final day!

According to my EV number I ran $4 over expectation for the month. I run goot!

Now let's look at a hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($200.00)
UTG+1		($200.00)
CO		($288.05)
BTN		($327.85)
Hero (SB)		($209.25)
BB		($256.40)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, BTN raises to $4, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, BTN calls $10

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
Hero bets $22, BTN calls $22

Turn: ($74, 2 players)
Hero bets $56, BTN calls $56

River: ($186, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $117.25, BTN calls $117.25

Final Pot: $420.50
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

BTN wins $417.50 ( won +$208.25 )
Hero lost -$209.25

Villain was a fish and I was very happy with my play and especially my bet sizing on the turn in order to get him pot stuck on the river. (Obv not so much of a problem for him given he had quads but meh to results orientated thinking).

Pokerstove tells me that I have 77.660% equity in this hand when I shove the river:

Board: 2h 4c 2d 6d Tc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.660% 76.60% 01.06% 36 0.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 22.340% 21.28% 01.06% 10 0.50 { 66+, 44, 22 }

However EV treats this as neutral, due to the fact that the money went in on river, when in actual fact I got my money in good vs opponents range and ran pretty bad in this hand.

There are many other examples this month and the moral of the post is that EV numbers just mislead people and should be ignored.

G-Bucks works much better:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker/columns/story?columnist=bluff_magazine&id=2817110